The global economy is becoming more fractured – not down the traditional lines of Developed versus Developing, but the strong versus the weak. Record deficit levels, previously unheard of stimulus measures and uneven levels of economic growth will force many countries to make hard political choices and shape the investment environment in 2011. In UBS Global Outlook 2011 we consider the investment implications.
Equity Markets EU
On Tuesday, European markets advanced as the companies reported second-quarter earnings that beat the analysts’ estimates. In addition, a report showed that the new housing starts in the US rose more than forecast in June. Technology, Construction & Materials and Insurance were among the best performing sectors in the broad-based DJ STOXX 600 index, while Personal & Households, Real Estate and Food & Beverages were among the worst performing sectors. SAP led the rally in technology stocks after IBM boosted its full-year profit forecast. Novartis gained after the better-than-expected earnings. Nordea soared after the bank reported record profit in second quarter and improved asset quality. ING Groep, Societe Generale and Intesa Sanpaolo were among the top gainers in the blue-chip DJ STOXX 50 index, while Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered and Unilever were among the top losers for the day.
Forex Markets
Half year results are being released in Switzerland and reflect the still strong economic conditions in Asia and other regions of the world. However, the companies also report that the strong Swiss franc starts to impact the P&L negatively. On Tuesday, one company statement even provided the basis for a rebound in EURCHF from 1.15 to 1.16. We still believe that the trend for the next days is aiming to EURCHF 1.20.
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